Africa

Burundi: Tough presidency awaits Evariste Ndayishimiye

Burundi's newly elected president is taking over a divided country from former strongman Pierre Nkurunziza. Can Evariste Ndayishimiye succeed where his predecessor failed?

Evariste Ndayishimiye speaks during the opening of the campaign

Evariste Ndayishimiye — Burundi's ruling party presidential candidate — has been declared the winner of the country's bitterly disputed election, with 68.72% of the vote.

The election commission said that Ndayishimiye's main rival, Agathon Rwasa of the National Freedom Council (CNL), scored 24.19% of last week's vote which saw 87.7% voter turnout.

"We will swallow our dark past which does not deserve to be our prison," Evariste Ndayishimiye said at a presidential campaign rally outside the capital, Bujumbura, during the election campaign. He assured his supporters that he would do everything possible to address the causes of conflict that have engulfed this central African nation.

A former army general, Ndayishimiye has been secretary of the ruling CNDD-FDD party since 2016. Before becoming president, he was head of the Military Affairs Department under former President Pierre Nkurunziza. Ndayishimiye also served as interior minister from 2006 to 2007.

Popularly known by his nickname "Neva," Ndayishimiye spent much of his career in the military before joining politics. He was a young student at the University of Burundi when the civil war started in 1993, and barely managed to escape when a Tutsi militia group attacked the law campus and killed dozens of students. The civil war, which lasted 13 years, took the lives of 300,000 people.

As the war raged on, Ndayishimiye, who had joined the Hutu militia, gradually rose through the ranks of the CNDD-FDD. The party later rewarded him in 2003 by appointing him the main negotiator in cease-fire talks that ended the conflict in 2006.

A man of two faces

"He's a rather open-minded man, easy at first, who likes to joke and laugh with his friends," said one friend of Ndayishimiye, though others have also noted that he can be fiery and quick to temper. One diplomat said the incoming president had displayed openness and honesty unlike other generals, but that he faces a difficult battle once he assumes power.

"He is viewed as somewhat moderate, someone who does not engage in identity politics," Benjamin Chemouni, a political analyst, told DW. "He has privately expressed his frustrations regarding bad governance in Burundi and he is considered less corrupt than other generals."

Unlike Nkurunziza, who many observers view as cold-blooded, Ndayishimiye has not been linked with the recent abuses carried out by the CNDD-FDD on its perceived critics. However, he did not intervene to quell the violence that gripped Burundi following the 2015 controversial election.

Nkurunziza's third term in the 2015 election was seen by many as unconstitutional. His bid and eventual victory sparked political unrest that left more than 1,000 people dead. Nearly 300,000 were forced to flee to neighboring countries.

Burundi's powerful military still controls the levers of government

Compromise candidate

According to the Burundi Human Rights Initiative, Ndayishimiye was picked as the ruling party's candidate to appease both Nkurunziza and powerful generals, who some believe actually control the government.

Nkurunziza had wanted Pascal Nyabenda, president of the national assembly, to succeed him, the rights watchdog said. "His [Ndayishimiye] main challenge would be how to navigate the different interests and the different competition for power and money within the party," said Chemouni.

"We must not forget that he is part of the generals who came to power because they took part in the civil war, so he will have to accommodate those generals." Chemouni thinks it will be difficult for Ndayishimiye to implement his policies, especially if they go against the vested interests of the generals.

Fires burn as a protester throws rock in Burundi

Burundi is still haunted by the 2015 election violence, which left more than 1,000 people dead

Economic, democratic woes

"Since 2015, we have seen how Burundi has been struggling economically," Moses Havyarimana, a Burundi-journalist based, told DW. "This could be one of the main challenges facing the new government."

Outgoing President of Burundi Pierre Nkurunziza

Analysts believe Nkurunziza will still have much influence after leaving office

Burundi has been struggling with high levels of unemployment and poverty. Many international donors suspended aid to Burundi after the 2015 election, leading to a scarcity of foreign currency.

"Both the incoming president and the opposition candidate Agathon Rwasa fought in the bush [civil war — Editor's note], and now they say they are trying to fight for democracy, but it remains to be seen whether they will implement these things," said Havyarimana.

According to Burundian expert Chemouni, Ndayishimiye might be ready to open up the political space, but he would be confronted with people from within his own party who might prevent him from engaging in a wider democratic process.

The 52-year-old will now have to walk a tightrope as his loyalty between Nkurunziza and the generals comes into question. "Getting out of Nkurunziza's shadow will be tricky," said Chemouni. "It seems that Nkurunziza wants to keep some influence on running the state affairs."

The outgoing leader, who is scheduled to step down in August, has been given a new political role known as the supreme leader of patriotism.

Burundi's political crisis

Burundi ahead of the 2018 referendum

On May 17, 2018, Burundians overwhelmingly voted for constitutional changes that could potentially see President Pierre Nkurunziza stay in office until 2034. The opposition claimed the vote was marred by intimidation and fraud. In 2015, protests erupted as Nkurunziza announced that he would run for a controversial third term. According to UN reports, at least 1,200 people died during the unrest.
Burundi's political crisis

Another term for Nkurunziza?

In April 2015, President Nkurunziza only had a few months left in office. Burundian law stipulates that a president should only serve for two terms, meaning that Nkurunziza would have had to step down. The president, however, announced that he would stand for another election.
Burundi's political crisis

Violence ahead of the 2015 election

In response, the streets of Bujumbura erupted in protest. In May 2015, the demonstrations had developed into a full-blown political crisis. A military coup attempt was quickly quashed. At the same time police and security forces cracked down on protesters and in return, government opponents attacked security officials. Reports of brutality and torture in police custody emerged.
Burundi's political crisis

Controversial presidential election

On July 21, 2015 Burundians went to the polls. A few days later, Pierre Nkurunziza was declared the winner. The results were to be expected, as the opposition had boycotted the vote. Opposition leader, Agathon Rwasa at first refused to accept the results. To the disappointment of other government critics, he called for a unity government a short while later.
Burundi's political crisis

Government critics under threat

In the following months, death threats and assassination attempts against opposition members, critics, but also government officials occured recurrently. Nkurunziza’s security chief, Adolphe Nshimirimana and human rights activist Pierre-Claver Mbonimpa (pictured above) are amongst the most prominent cases. Mbonimpa survived after being shot at least four times but lost his son and son-in-law.
Burundi's political crisis

Escalation in December 2015

On December 11, 2015, government opponents attacked four military bases in Bujumbura. A day later, army troops descended on oppositional strongholds in the capital. Residents reported dozens of deaths. Altogether over 100 people are said to have died during the clashes. As a response the African Union offered to send peacekeeping troops to the country, but Nkurunziza refused any intervention.
Burundi's political crisis

Fleeing the crisis

We can’t ignore such a crisis of such dimension, Adama Dieng, the UN’s special advisor for the prevention of genocide declared in late 2015. Humanitarian crisis was at its peak at the time. To date, nearly 400,000 Burundian refugees still live outside the country.
Burundi's political crisis

Talks fail

In January 2016, the African Union attempted to mediate in talks between the government and the opposition. Yet the conference in Arusha in neighboring Tanzania was repeatedly postponed. When the talks began in May, a major opposition coalition, CNARED, was excluded and the talks were regarded as a sham from the start.
Burundi's political crisis

A fragile peace

As time passed life returned to normal in the streets of Bujumbura, yet under the surface, political grievances remained the same. In September 2016, UN investigators reported evidence of grave human rights violations including torture and killings through state actors. The investigators also warned about the rising ethnic tension.
Burundi's political crisis

Constitutional reforms

In the meantime, Nkurunziza‘s government planned constitutional reforms. In August 2016, a government commission proposed changes to the constitution that would scrap presidential term limits. Nkurunziza himself hinted that he was considering a fourth term in office in 2020.
Burundi's political crisis

Militia terrorize the population

At the start of 2017, the political situation remained tense. Militia belonging to the Imbonerakure youth wing continued to spread fear amongst the people. Despite international pressure and sanctions from the European Union, Nkurunziza’s stance remained unchanged.
Burundi's political crisis

A case for the ICC?

In November 2017, the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague opened an investigation into alleged crimes against humanity in Burundi. The prosecution accused the government of launching a widespread and systematic attack against civilians. A month earlier, Burundi was the first country in Africa to withdraw from the ICC and the Rome Statute.
Burundi's political crisis

Massacre before the referendum

On May 11, 2018 unknown gunmen attacked residents in the province of Cibitoke. At least 26 people died. The government accused 'terrorists' from the neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo for the attack. The deadly incident occurred just days ahead of the constitutional referendum on May 17 that could potentially allow Nkurunziza to stay in office until 2034.

Author: Jan Philipp Wilhelm