How will Taiwan's new leader shape relations with China?

The results of Taiwan's presidential and parliamentary elections came out as bad news to Beijing and will likely keep both sides in a continuous icy relationship, experts told DW.

On Saturday night, Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) hailed its success in securing a third presidency in a row. That broke a record as no political party had stayed in power for more than two terms since the island elected its first leader in 1996.

William Lai Ching-te, the president elect whose tenure does not officially start until May 20, said in his victory speech that Taiwan has chosen to "stand on the side of democracy" as opposed to authoritarianism.

Later that night, China's Taiwan Affairs Office played down the DPP's victory by stating that the result could not represent the mainstream public opinion in Taiwan. It added that these elections would not stop the "unstoppable trend of the eventual reunification of the motherland."

Beijing claims Taiwan as its own territory. Under China's leader Xi Jinping's rule over the past decade, it has intensified its determination to "reunify" with the democratically-governed island.

Beijing's thoughts on Taiwan's election outcome

Before the elections, China framed the vote as a choice between "war and peace" and denounced Lai as "a dangerous separatist" who, if elected as president, would be a threat to regional peace.

Despite the warnings, the 67-year-old won around 40% of votes in a tight three-way race with Hou Yu-ih from the main opposition party Kuomintang (KMT) and Ko Wen-je from the relatively new Taiwan People's Party (TPP).

"They're [China] not happy about Lai. It's bad news because the person they didn't want to win won," Lev Nachman, a political scientist at Taiwan's National Chengchi University, told DW.

But "there is a silver lining from the PRC's perspective," Nachman said, addressing China by the abbreviation of its official name, the People's Republic of China. He highlighted that, with Lai not getting 50% of the vote, it meant: "The majority of people did not vote for the DPP or Lai. That's a big deal."

At the same time, another expert believed that the DPP's victory was "within China's expectation," even if there was a wish to see Taiwan's leadership shift to opposition parties that call for more dialogue and exchanges with Beijing.

Chang Wu-ueh, a cross-Strait relations expert at Tamkang University, told DW that most Chinese officials foresaw this outcome and were preparing for possible responses.

"The pre-election measures of military intimidation and economic pressure are far more likely to be stepped up in the post-election era," Chang said.

Cross-Strait relations: Icy but no drastic change

Taiwan, about 100 miles away from China across the Taiwan Strait, is potentially one of the most crucial flashpoints in the world. In the last eight years of DPP's rule, official dialogue between the two sides has been suspended.

With Lai set to take office, Washington and other Western democracies are closely watching how his China policy may change the already tense cross-Strait relations.

"I don't think there's going to be war, but I think the PRC will continue to not pick up the phone," said Scholar Nachman, adding that "more icy relations" are expected to drag on and that Lai is very unlikely to change the status quo.

Chong Ja Ian, a political science professor at the National University of Singapore, told DW that while Xi Jinping is dissatisfied with the outcome and wants to step up pressure on Taiwan, he "may worry about uncontrollable escalation at a time when the PRC economy is weaker."

During Saturday's speech, Lai promised he will act in accordance with the constitutions of "the Republic of China," Taiwan's official name, in a manner that "maintains the cross-strait status quo."

Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken reiterated a commitment to "maintaining cross-Strait peace and stability" in a congratulatory statement to Taiwan. He also pledged to further their "longstanding unofficial relationship."

Chang told DW that the future of cross-Strait relations could depend on cross-Pacific relations between the US and China.

"As long as the US-China relationship is smooth and differences can be managed, Beijing believes that the larger cross-Strait US-China relationship far outweighs the smaller cross-Strait one," he said.

The tension across the Taiwan Strait is a constant source of friction between Beijing and Washington. The US, which adopts the One-China policy that only recognized the PRC's sovereignty, has been showing support for Taiwan with arms sales and bilateral exchanges at an unofficial level.

A real test for Taiwan's next administration

However, experts believe that the new parliament will be a significant test of Lai's leadership, given the fact that no political party has secured an absolute majority in the legislative body.

Chong, the politics professor in Singapore, explained to DW: "A president without a legislative majority will have to handle their legislative agenda, which could affect foreign policy."

In Taiwan's 113-seat parliament, the DPP lost 11 seats in the latest election, yielding dominance to the KMT, which secured 52 seats. The TPP, with only 8 seats, is poised to become a crucial minority, with both major parties vying for a coalition.

A similar situation, where the ruling party failed to secure a majority, occurred in 2000 when former President Chen Shui-bian of the DPP was elected in Taiwan.

Professor Chong said, at the time "as Chen got more and more frustrated," he started framing his cross-strait policy in a more risk-acceptant way, including his "One Country on Each Side" policy that indicated China and Taiwan are two different countries.

Although Lai's character appears different from Chen's, Chong emphasized, "no one knows at this point" how the new leader may respond to extreme pressure when standing on the top position.

Edited by: Richard Connor.