German spies saw Kabul fall as 'rather unlikely': report

Germany's foreign intelligence service believed that an immediate takeover of Afghanistan's capital, Kabul, was "rather unlikely," the Bild newspaper reported on Wednesday.

The best-selling tabloid cited leaked minutes from a meeting of the German government's crisis response team that took place on Friday.

The Federal Intelligence Service, also known by its German acronym BND, said the Taliban "currently have no interest" in seizing Kabul before the US completes its withdrawal from the country.

German officials did warn that the departure of Afghan leaders abroad could "accelerate the process."

But the hardline Islamist group managed to capture the capital city just two days later, ending a two-week offensive in which they managed to take over large swathes of Afghanistan.

The leaked memo comes as Germany races to evacuate its citizens and Afghan staff who worked for its military over the past two decades.

Bild branded the intelligence assessment "a miscalculation of historic proportions."

The German government is yet to comment on the report.

CDU lawmaker Roderich Kiesewetter, himself a former Bundeswehr officer, said there should be "a political will to accept the results and reports of the secret services." 

"We should avoid political bias, assessments, inside our ministries, especially in the Foreign Office," he told DW.

Germany, which maintained the second-largest military presence in Afghanistan after the United States, last month pulled out all of its troops after 20 years in Afghanistan.Some 600 German soldiers had to be redeployed to ensure that evacuation flights can be carried out safely. 

Questions for the US over intelligence reports

Questions have also been asked about whether US security officials understood what was really happening on the ground in Afghanistan.

Just five weeks ago, US President Joe Biden told reporters that it was "highly unlikely" that the Taliban would be able to wrestle back control of the entire country.

"There's going to be no circumstance where you see people being lifted off the roof of an embassy of the United States from Afghanistan," Biden said at the time.

The White House has rejected suggestions that it rushed the pullout, insisting that it was up to Afghanistan's government and military to see off the Taliban.

But some unclassified assessments released earlier this year did cast doubt on whether Afghan security forces would stand and fight after US and coalition forces left.

An annual report by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence gave such a warning in April.

It said the Taliban "is likely to make gains on the battlefield, and the Afghan government will struggle to hold the Taliban at bay if the coalition withdraws support."

US intelligence officials predicted earlier this month that Kabul could fall "within 90 days" after the final American troops leave.

In many parts of Afghanistan, the Taliban managed to seize territory from the Afghan army without a shot being fired.

The United States spent a total of $83 billion (€70 billion) on training and equipping the Afghanistan National Defense and Security Forces over the past two decades.

The conflict saw more than 100,000 Afghans killed, and 3,500 allied soldiers lose their lives.

jf/sms (AP, AFP, Reuters)